I'm Calling A Bottom - DJIA 8100 to 8200

First caveat: there will be a few hundred points of volatility in the DOW 30 for the next few weeks but I'm calling this as the bottom. The DJIA closed in the 8200's today and I feel like we're done selling. Maybe get as low as 8,000 but I think what we are witnessing is a bottoming process.

I am hearing from radio / TV that they are calling this the Obama Recession because people are selling stocks, etc., to avoid increased capital gains taxes.

I don't buy that. Yes, there are anectdotes about that but there's also anectdotes about people seeing flying saucers. I think we had a huge pop in the bubble, the economy is in the tank, financial companies are laying off like crazy and the stock market is as low as it's gonna get, plus or minus a couple percent.

So, I honestly think you're pretty safe to start buying or adding to your diversified, well managed mutual funds at this point.

Would I buy individual stocks? Not too many of them. LOTS of risk still exists that GM or Ford may go BK. However, if you buy diversified portfolios, you should be okay. Try to buy American if you're going to buy based on this recommendation.

Finance

I'm looking at taking a big chunk of my Financial Aid check from January and sticking it in a short term CD (like 6 months) so that way this summer when I am studying for the bar exam it will mature, and almost more importantly: Megan and I will not be able to touch it before then. <-- is this a stupid idea with the interest rate being so low right now?

I'm looking for virtually NO risk (the kind of risk that means if I lose that money the USA has bigger things to worry about). I'd love to put $$ into a mutual fund and see it double in that time (like if prices bounced back to what they were 5 months ago), but I'd hate to get to June and have it be worth half as much as if I had just put it under my matress (as Megan's mutual fund has done in the last few months).

Let's See If I Still Have It

Or, Why I went 25% Cash on Tuesday, June 19th, 2007.

In my retirement account I am appropriately invested, which means 100% equity, and probably 50% of that "international" or global or world, and at least 50% of the whole portfolio in small or mid-sized companies.

I can't say that the past year has been particularly stellar for any kind of investment, and most indexes are at or near their highs (except for NASDAQ, which will take a decade to hit it's high) but at least everything is at or near 5 year highs.

That part doesn't worry me at all. In fact, most of the money ever made in the stock market was made when investments went above previous highs. (The very nature of an upward-sloping investment means that overall, time makes you more money than timing.)

So why did I move 25% into "cash"? Because I don't like how the market keeps sputtering at the top.

So why didn't I move 100% into "cash"? Because even with all the fear and bad news floating around, the market is actually chugging along pretty well.

So I'm looking for a buying opportunity if the market dips or corrects a few percent.

I own a mutual fund named Capital World Growth and Income (CWGIX) from American Funds and when you see the picture below, you'll know why I use the Dow Jones to see how well CWGIX is doing. So, therefore, we'll see if selling some of this when DJIA was 13,645 is a good idea or a bad idea...

By the way, www.BigCharts.com is a great resource for stock charts and performance info, that's where I got the chart above.

Eric